THE COUNTRY IS SPEAKING. OUR TASK IS TO LISTEN.
Foreword
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This Voice of the People Poll captures where public opinion stands now across five areas: political parties and alliances, support for the Broad-Based Government, presidential preference, running-mate options and opposition leadership.
It is not a prediction. It is not an endorsement. It is not a campaign document.
It is a nationally representative snapshot based on 3,000 adults drawn from all 47 counties.
A frequent question is how 3,000 respondents can speak for more than 26 million adult Kenyans. The answer lies not simply in the size of the sample, but in how it is selected.
A census counts everyone. A poll estimates opinion.
Some findings will be welcomed. Others will be challenged. That is the nature of public opinion. We welcome robust debate, provided it is informed, factual and respectful of the evidence.
Our responsibility is not to make the results comfortable. It is to make them accurate.
“The numbers are not a verdict. They are feedback.”
The real question is not whether everyone likes what the mirror shows. It is what they choose to do after seeing it.
WHY 3,000 MATTERS
It’s not about size. It’s about science.
Scientifically selected. Nationally representative. Professionally weighted.
HOW TO READ THE FINDINGS
A POLL IS A MIRROR
✓ It does not create the image, flatter the subject or choose what to reveal.
✓ It reflects what is there at that moment.
The real question is not whether everyone likes what the mirror shows. It is what they choose to do after seeing it.
Public opinion is not a verdict. It is feedback — and wise leadership listens.
KENYA’S POLITICAL MAP IS BECOMING CLEARER, BUT THE CONTEST REMAINS OPEN
Political Landscape — An incumbent with a clear lead. A fragmented opposition. A sizeable non-aligned electorate.
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WHAT THE DATA SHOWS
The central feature of Kenya’s current political environment is not consolidation. It is an open contest shaped by incumbent advantage, a fragmented opposition, regionally differentiated preferences and a sizeable non-aligned electorate.
The path to August 2027 will depend on which political actors can convert visibility into trust, build credible coalitions, demonstrate competence and persuade voters who have not yet made a firm choice.
THE POLL EXAMINED FIVE CONNECTED DIMENSIONS OF KENYA’S EVOLVING POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT
Areas Covered
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Together, these findings offer a broad picture of the political choices, uncertainties and strategic considerations that are likely to shape the next phase of the electoral cycle.
POLL METHODOLOGY
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Nationally representative survey of 3,000 adults across all 47 counties, conducted 22nd–26th June 2026 using mixed-mode data collection (CAPI and CATI), with a ±1.79% margin of error at 95% confidence and a 99% response rate.
METHODOLOGY NOTES
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION & RESPONDENT DEMOGRAPHICS
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The nationally representative sample of 3,000 adults was proportionately allocated across Kenya’s 8 regions and reflects a broadly balanced demographic profile by gender, age, education, employment and religion.
SAMPLE DISTRIBUTION
| Region | Adult Population (Millions) | Regional Proportions | Sample Achieved per Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 2.3 | 9% | 272 |
| North Eastern | 1.0 | 4% | 119 |
| Eastern | 3.9 | 15% | 451 |
| Central | 3.4 | 13% | 401 |
| Rift Valley | 6.6 | 26% | 767 |
| Western | 2.5 | 10% | 288 |
| Nyanza | 3.2 | 12% | 368 |
| Nairobi City | 2.9 | 11% | 334 |
| TOTAL | 25.8 | 100% | 3000 |
The sample was proportionately spread across all the 47 counties of Kenya.
RESPONDENT DEMOGRAPHICS
n = 3000
BROADBASED GOVERNMENT
AWARENESS OF THE BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT
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Awareness of the Broad-Based Government is high at 79%, Awareness is strongest among 18–26 year olds (86%), men (84%) and Nairobi residents (84%), and remains above 70% across all regions and demographic groups. Nationally, 16% say they are unaware, while 6% are not sure.
AWARENESS OVERALL & BY REGION
BY GENDER & AGE
LEVEL OF SUPPORT FOR BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT
▾
Only 33% of Kenyans support the broad-based government, while 37% oppose it. A further 27% neither support nor oppose, and 3% are not sure.
LEVEL OF SUPPORT: BY REGION (%)
| Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support | 28% | 48% | 27% | 19% | 45% | 33% | 44% | 24% | 33% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 32% | 32% | 25% | 36% | 26% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 27% |
| Oppose | 36% | 16% | 46% | 42% | 26% | 39% | 29% | 50% | 37% |
| Not sure/Don’t Know | 4% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
LEVEL OF SUPPORT: BY GENDER & AGE (%)
| Female | Male | 18–26 | 27–35 | 36–45 | 46–55 | Over 55 | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Support | 29% | 36% | 38% | 32% | 30% | 32% | 34% | 33% |
| Neither support nor oppose | 33% | 22% | 18% | 29% | 31% | 29% | 30% | 27% |
| Oppose | 34% | 39% | 42% | 35% | 36% | 35% | 33% | 37% |
| Not sure/Don’t Know | 4% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
REASONS FOR SUPPORT
n = 906
REASONS FOR OPPOSITION
n = 1007
BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT: KEY TAKE OUTS
▾
Awareness is high (79%), but public opinion is divided:
33% support, 37% oppose, 27% are neutral, and 3% are unsure.
AWARENESS & OVERALL SENTIMENT
Awareness n = 3000 | Support question n = 2356
SUPPORT BY REGION
HIGHEST SUPPORT: North Eastern (48%), Rift Valley (45%), Nyanza (44%)
LOWEST SUPPORT: Central (19%), Nairobi (24%)
TOP 3 REASONS FOR SUPPORT (Base: Supporters n = 906)
TOP 3 REASONS FOR OPPOSITION (Base: Opponents n = 1007)
KEY TAKE OUTS
Source: Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, July 2026
2027 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
POPULARITY OF PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS
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William Ruto leads at 32%. Kalonzo Musyoka follows at 13%, while Edwin Sifuna and Dr. Fred Matiang’i are tied at 12%. Undecided voters remain significant at 18%.
POPULARITY OF PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS
George Natembeya, Eugene Wamalwa, Ndindi Nyoro, Okiya Omtatah, Ekuru Aokot, George Wajackoyah, Jimmy Wanjigi.
POPULARITY OF PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS: BY REGION
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PERCENTAGE SUPPORT BY REGION (%)
| RANK | ASPIRANT | OVERALL | Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | OVERALL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Ruto | 32% | 33% | 59% | 19% | 12% | 46% | 35% | 40% | 19% | 32% |
| 2 | Kalonzo Musyoka | 13% | 9% | 6% | 40% | 13% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 9% | 13% |
| 3= | Edwin Sifuna | 12% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 26% | 10% | 14% | 12% |
| 3= | Fred Matiang’i | 12% | 9% | 6% | 10% | 19% | 9% | 8% | 17% | 16% | 12% |
| 5 | Rigathi Gachagua | 4% | – | 4% | 3% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 4% |
| 6 | Babu Owino | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 9% | 6% | 3% |
| 7 | David Maraga | 2% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% |
| 8= | Martha Karua | 1% | 1% | – | 0.2% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | 1% | – | 1% |
| 8= | Others* | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Prefer not to say | 3% | 1% | – | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | |
| Undecided | 18% | 24% | 13% | 13% | 26% | 14% | 19% | 11% | 24% | 18% |
* Others (1%) include: George Natembeya, Eugene Wamalwa, Ndindi Nyoro, Okiya Omtatah, Ekuru Aokot, George Wajackoyah and Jimmy Wanjigi
KEY TAKEAWAYS
POPULARITY OF PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS: BY GENDER & AGE
▾
KEY TAKEOUTS
BY GENDER
| Female | Male | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|
| President William Ruto | 30% | 34% | 32% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 11% | 13% | 12% |
| Dr. Fred Matiang’i | 10% | 13% | 12% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| Babu Owino | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| David Maraga | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Martha Karua | 1% | 0.4% | 1% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Prefer not to say | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| Undecided | 20% | 15% | 18% |
BY AGE
| 18–26 years | 27–35 years | 36–45 years | 46–55 years | Over 55 years | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President William Ruto | 28% | 31% | 32% | 38% | 33% | 32% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 13% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 16% | 13% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 20% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 12% |
| Dr. Fred Matiang’i | 12% | 10% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 12% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | 6% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Babu Owino | 6% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| David Maraga | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | 2% |
| Martha Karua | 1% | 0.3% | 1% | 0.2% | 1% | 1% |
| Others | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Prefer not to say | 7% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% |
| Undecided | 4% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 18% |
PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS: SUPPORT BY POLITICAL PARTY PREFERENCE
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KEY TAKEOUTS
PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS: SUPPORT BY POLITICAL PARTY PREFERENCE
▾
KEY TAKEOUTS
| UDA | ODM | DCP | WIPER | JUBILEE PARTY | None | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President William Ruto | 87% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 11% | 14% | 32% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 2% | 8% | 20% | 89% | 4% | 10% | 13% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 2% | 23% | 13% | 4% | 12% | 13% | 12% |
| Dr. Fred Matiang’i | 1% | 7% | 20% | 3% | 60% | 14% | 12% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | 0.3% | 2% | 24% | – | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Babu Owino | 1% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| David Maraga | – | 3% | 1% | – | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Martha Karua | – | 0.4% | – | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Others | 0.2% | 1% | 2% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Prefer not to say | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 5% | 3% |
| Undecided | 6% | 10% | 11% | 1% | 4% | 34% | 18% |
POPULARITY OF PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS – TREND ANALYSIS
JULY 2026
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POPULARITY OF PRESIDENTIAL ASPIRANTS – TREND ANALYSIS
JULY 2026
n = 3000
PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY TREND OVER TIME
*December 2025 Others combines Gladys Wanga (1%), George Natembeya (1%), Ndindi Nyoro (0.5%), George Wajackoyah (0.2%) and Edwin Sifuna (0.2%).
KEY TAKEOUTS
Source: Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, July 2026 | pp = percentage points
PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY: KEY TAKEOUTS
JULY 2026
▾
PRESIDENTIAL POPULARITY: KEY TAKEOUTS
JULY 2026
n = 3000
He has widened his lead but remains below majority territory.
The opposition vote is split among several contenders, with no single national alternative yet emerging.
Sifuna 11% | Matiang’i 19%
Sifuna 14%
Support bases differ by age and gender rather than consolidated nationally.
August 2025 June 2026
Undecided/refused declined from 36% in August 2025 to 20% in June 2026.
Undecided is highest in Central (26%) and Nairobi (24%).
Source: Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, July 2026 | pp = percentage points
2027 BROADBASE PRESIDENTIAL RUNNING MATE OPTIONS
PREFERRED RUNNING MATE FOR PRESIDENT RUTO IN THE BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT
▾
Public opinion is split: 37% are unsure, while Prof. Kithure Kindiki emerges as the clear preferred running mate at 34%, far ahead of Gladys Wanga at 11%. All other named contenders remain in single digits.
PREFERRED RUNNING MATE (RANKED)
• John Mbadi
• Aden Duale
Kindiki is the only named contender above 20%, giving him a commanding lead.
Gladys Wanga ranks a distant second at 11%.
Uncertainty remains high: 37% are not sure, exceeding support for any individual option.
PREFERRED RUNNING MATE FOR PRESIDENT RUTO IN THE BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT
Regional, Gender & Age Breakdown
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PREFERRED RUNNING MATE FOR PRESIDENT RUTO IN THE BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT
KEY TAKEOUTS
BY REGION
| Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prof. Kithure Kindiki | 23% | 44% | 39% | 22% | 43% | 36% | 28% | 29% | 34% |
| Gladys Wanga | 8% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 21% | 8% | 11% |
| Oburu Oginga | 6% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 1% | 6% | 6% | 5% |
| Hassan Joho | 11% | 9% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% |
| Not Sure/Don’t Know | 45% | 23% | 35% | 46% | 29% | 41% | 32% | 48% | 37% |
BY GENDER & AGE
| Female | Male | 18–26 years | 27–35 years | 36–45 years | 46–55 years | Over 55 years | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prof. Kithure Kindiki | 34% | 34% | 31% | 33% | 36% | 37% | 32% | 34% |
| Gladys Wanga | 11% | 12% | 19% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 11% |
| Oburu Oginga | 4% | 6% | 12% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% |
| Hassan Joho | 3% | 5% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Not Sure/Don’t Know | 40% | 34% | 19% | 42% | 42% | 42% | 47% | 37% |
Other named options (overall): Anne Waiguru 3%, Musalia Mudavadi 2%, Moses Wetang’ula 2%, Simba Arati 1%, Others 0.4%.
RUNNING MATES MOST LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN PRESIDENT RUTO’S SUPPORT: REGIONAL SNAPSHOT
▾
DON’T KNOW
DON’T KNOW
DON’T KNOW
DON’T KNOW
KEY TAKEOUTS
RUNNING MATE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN PRESIDENT RUTO’S SUPPORT: REGIONAL BREAKDOWN
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MT. KENYA
Moses Wetangula, Simba Arati, Irungu Kang’ata, Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth.
NYANZA
Anne Waiguru, Raymond Omollo, Winnie Odinga.
WESTERN
COAST
Abdullswamad Sheriff Nassir, Moses Wetangula, Anne Waiguru, Amason Kingi, Salim Mvurya, Aisha Jumwa.
n = 3000
RUNNING MATE INSIGHTS: SUMMARY
Preferred running mate for President Ruto in the Broad-Based Government
▾
A large share of respondents remain unsure (37%), but among named options Prof. Kithure Kindiki is the clear preferred running mate at 34%, well ahead of Gladys Wanga at 11%.
Other named options (overall): Anne Waiguru 3% | Musalia Mudavadi 2% | Moses Wetang’ula 2% | Simba Arati 1% | Others 0.4%.
WHAT THE DATA SAYS
REGIONAL STRENGTHENING SNAPSHOT
DON’T KNOW
DON’T KNOW
DON’T KNOW
DON’T KNOW
2027 OPPOSITION PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES
POPULAR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES IN THE OPPOSITION
▾
PREFERRED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE FOR THE OPPOSITION
TOP FOUR CONTENDERS
KEY TAKEOUTS
POPULAR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES IN THE OPPOSITION: BY REGION, GENDER & AGE
▾
| Candidate | Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Female | Male | 18–26 | 27–35 | 36–45 | 46–55 | Over 55 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 23% | 34% | 48% | 27% | 24% | 18% | 21% | 22% | 25% | 29% | 24% | 26% | 29% | 28% | 29% | 27% |
| Dr. Fred Matiang’i | 25% | 22% | 21% | 29% | 27% | 25% | 29% | 30% | 25% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 30% | 27% | 24% | 26% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 25% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 17% | 35% | 25% | 20% | 19% | 19% | 27% | 20% | 17% | 16% | 12% | 19% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | 5% | 11% | 8% | 17% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 9% | 9% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
| David Maraga | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Martha Karua | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| George Natembeya | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0.3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 0.5% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Eugene Wamalwa | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0.2% | 1% | 0.3% | 1% |
| Okiya Omtatah | – | 1% | – | 0.3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0.4% | 1% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1% | 0.3% | 1% |
| Babu Owino | – | – | 1% | 1% | – | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0.3% | 2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | – | 1% |
| Not Sure/Don’t Know | 12% | 17% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 12% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 11% | 10% | 14% | 20% | 10% |
POPULAR OPPOSITION TICKET:
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WITH RUNNING MATE
▾
POPULAR OPPOSITION TICKET:
POPULAR OPPOSITION TICKET OPTIONS
KEY TAKEOUTS
POPULAR OPPOSITION TICKET: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WITH RUNNING MATE
▾
KEY TAKEOUTS
| Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Female | Male | 18–26 | 27–35 | 36–45 | 46–55 | Over 55 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalonzo Musyoka with Edwin Sifuna | 26% | 17% | 28% | 14% | 19% | 36% | 26% | 21% | 20% | 26% | 31% | 24% | 20% | 19% | 17% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka with Fred Matiang’i | 15% | 23% | 22% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 15% | 16% | 18% | 13% | 17% | 14% | 15% |
| Fred Matiang’i with Kalonzo Musyoka | 15% | 10% | 13% | 17% | 15% | 12% | 19% | 19% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 19% | 14% | 16% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka with Rigathi Gachagua | 3% | 5% | 8% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 7% | 5% |
| Rigathi Gachagua with Kalonzo Musyoka | 4% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 7% |
| Rigathi Gachagua with Fred Matiang’i | 3% | 6% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 6% | 4% |
| Fred Matiang’i with Rigathi Gachagua | 3% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 3% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka with Martha Karua | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Not Sure/Don’t Know | 25% | 22% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 20% | 21% | 27% | 23% | 18% | 11% | 23% | 22% | 25% | 28% |
POLITICAL PARTY & POLITICAL ALLIANCES
POLITICAL PARTY POPULARITY:
BY OVERALL
▾
POLITICAL PARTY POPULARITY:
2%
to disclose
7%
Don’t know
2%
OTHERS INCLUDE:
- FORD-Kenya
- KANU
- Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP)
- Party of National Unity (PNU)
- Maendeleo Chap Chap Party
- Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG)
- People’s Liberation Party (PLP)
- Usawa Kwa Wote Party
- United Green Movement (UGM)
- Thirdway Alliance Kenya
- Ukweli Party
- Frontier Alliance Party (FAP)
- NARC
- Muungano Party
- Restore and Build Kenya Party
- Peoples’ Empowerment Party (PEP)
- Kenya National Congress (KNC)
- Chama Cha Mashinani (CCM)
POLITICAL PARTY POPULARITY: BY REGION, GENDER & AGE
▾
Across regions and demographic groups, no single political party commands majority support. The largest share nationally is for the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 22%, followed by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 21%. A significant proportion of Kenyans do not feel close to any political party: 29% overall across regions and 29% across gender and age groups.
| Political Party | Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Female | Male | 18–26 | 27–35 | 36–45 | 46–55 | Over 55 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Democratic Alliance (UDA) | 27% | 45% | 16% | 9% | 39% | 18% | 13% | 8% | 19% | 25% | 17% | 20% | 21% | 27% | 25% | 22% |
| Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) | 46% | 23% | 7% | 6% | 11% | 32% | 50% | 16% | 19% | 23% | 26% | 20% | 20% | 22% | 17% | 21% |
| Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) | 1% | 1% | 10% | 33% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 13% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 9% |
| Wiper Democratic Front (WDF) | 4% | 1% | 23% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0.5% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 5% |
| Jubilee Party | 3% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 12% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 6% |
| Others | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0.5% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| I don’t want to disclose | 3% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 8% | 7% |
| None | 14% | 19% | 30% | 36% | 29% | 34% | 13% | 48% | 32% | 26% | 14% | 35% | 33% | 33% | 31% | 29% |
n = 3000 | Nationwide survey of adults 18 years and above conducted 22nd – 26th June 2026
POLITICAL PARTY POPULARITY – TREND ANALYSIS
JULY 2026
▾
POLITICAL PARTY POPULARITY – TREND ANALYSIS
JULY 2026
n = 3000
POPULARITY OF POLITICAL PARTIES OVER TIME (%)
KEY TAKEOUTS
Source: Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, July 2026 | pp = percentage points
POPULARITY OF POLITICAL FORMATIONS
▾
NATIONAL OVERALL
KEY TAKEOUTS
BY REGION
| Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad-Based Government | 24% | 50% | 17% | 9% | 43% | 27% | 34% | 14% | 27% |
| Linda Mwananchi | 25% | 17% | 18% | 23% | 20% | 38% | 28% | 29% | 24% |
| United Alternative Government | 11% | 8% | 40% | 35% | 14% | 7% | 16% | 19% | 20% |
| None | 40% | 25% | 25% | 33% | 23% | 28% | 22% | 39% | 28% |
BY GENDER & AGE
| Female | Male | 18–26 | 27–35 | 36–45 | 46–55 | Over 55 | Overall | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad-Based Government | 24% | 30% | 27% | 25% | 26% | 31% | 27% | 27% |
| Linda Mwananchi | 21% | 26% | 33% | 27% | 22% | 19% | 12% | 24% |
| United Alternative Government | 21% | 20% | 25% | 16% | 20% | 18% | 21% | 20% |
| None | 34% | 24% | 15% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 38% | 28% |
7 THINGS THE POLL SAYS AND 7 THINGS IT DOES NOT SAY
WHAT THE POLL SAYS
The race is open, despite Ruto’s lead — and political loyalties are fragmented, region by region.
▾
Ruto commands the highest single share of voter support nationally. However, he is still below majority level.
The rest of the field is split across several contenders — Kalonzo Musyoka 13%, Edwin Sifuna 12%, Fred Matiang’i 12% — with 20% still undecided or declined to answer.
Takeaway: A clear frontrunner. A fragmented field. An open race.
Political parties: UDA 22%, ODM 21%, DCP 9%, No Party Preference 29%.
Political formations: None 28%, Broad-Based Government 27%, Linda Mwananchi 24%, United Alternative Government 20%.
UDA and ODM are nearly level, while no party preference remains high at 29%. Among formations, no single option dominates, with ‘None’ at 28% only marginally ahead of the Broad-Based Government at 27%.
Public sentiment: 33% support, 37% oppose, 27% neutral, 3% unsure.
Supporters mainly cite peace, stability and unity. Opponents mainly point to poor performance, political self-interest and corruption.
Preferred opposition candidate (overall): Kalonzo Musyoka 27%, Fred Matiang’i 26%, Edwin Sifuna 19%.
Kalonzo and Matiang’i are virtually tied for the top spot, while Sifuna commands notable support.
Takeaway: The opposition vote is fluid. The race for leadership — and tickets — is wide open.
Preferred opposition ticket (overall): Kalonzo–Sifuna 23%, Kalonzo–Matiang’i 16%, Matiang’i–Kalonzo 15%, Unsure/Declined 21%.
The tested ticket combinations show no dominant choice, although Kalonzo–Sifuna records the highest support.
Takeaway: The leading ticket is a signal, not a settled verdict.
National running-mate preference: Kindiki 34%, Gladys Wanga 11%, Unsure 37%.
Regional anchors (highest preference): Mt Kenya — Kindiki 41%; Nyanza — Wanga 35%; Western — Mudavadi 28%; Coast — Joho 60%.
Takeaway: Kindiki leads nationally, but political value remains regionally distributed.
Ruto leads the presidential race at 32% nationally. UDA and ODM are almost tied at 22% and 21% respectively. 29% of Kenyans have no party preference. Running-mate and opposition preferences also differ across the country.
Takeaway: One election. Different voter realities.
Source: Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, July 2026 | n = 3,000 | Fieldwork: June 2026
WHAT THE POLL DOES NOT SAY
A poll reads the moment; it does not decide the election. A poll tests today’s choices; it does not define the final field.
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The findings measure opinion at the time of fieldwork, not the final 2027 result.
CAUTION: A poll is a snapshot, not a prophecy.
Ruto’s 32% gives him a clear lead, but it remains below majority level.
CAUTION: A lead is not inevitability.
79% awareness of the Broad-Based Government does not mean 79% support. Actual support is 33%.
CAUTION: Being known is not being endorsed.
A one-point gap, such as between Kalonzo and Matiang’i, does not establish a clear lead.
CAUTION: Not every gap is a lead.
Undecided, neutral, unaffiliated, non-disclosing and no-preference respondents come from different questions and may have different motivations.
CAUTION: Uncertain voters are not one bloc.
A regionally influential leader cannot automatically deliver all of that region’s votes to a presidential candidate.
CAUTION: Political influence does not automatically transfer votes.
Other candidates, alliances and ticket combinations may still emerge before August 2027.
CAUTION: The tested field is not necessarily the final field.
Use the poll to inform interpretation, not to overstate certainty. Polls are powerful tools, but political outcomes are shaped by campaigns, coalitions, turnout and events.
Source: Infotrak Voice of the People Poll, July 2026 | n = 3,000