Mulembe Nation Poll December 2025
Mulembe Nation Poll
A telephonic opinion poll of registered voters across the five Luhya-nation counties of Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia and Trans Nzoia, covering the Abaluhya community's top negotiating priorities, party loyalty, and leadership preferences ahead of the 2027 elections.
Methodology
Data Collection
Fieldwork conducted on 29th December, 2025.
Interviews were conducted through Computer Assisted Telephonic Interviews (CATI).
Universe: voters aged 18 years and above at the time of the poll, across the 5 counties covered.
Target sample size of 600 respondents; achieved sample of 602.
Margin of error of ±4.0% at a 95% degree of confidence.
Response rate of 100%.
Data processed and analysed using SPSS 27 statistical software.
| County | Voter Population | % of Voter Population | Sample Distribution | Achieved Sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kakamega | 844,551 | 32% | 194 | 197 |
| Vihiga | 310,043 | 12% | 71 | 69 |
| Bungoma | 646,598 | 25% | 148 | 148 |
| Busia | 416,756 | 16% | 96 | 96 |
| Trans Nzoia | 398,981 | 15% | 91 | 92 |
| Total | 2,616,929 | 100% | 600 | 602 |
Abaluhya Priorities
What is the one issue the Abaluhya community should prioritise most in national negotiations? (n = 602)
Top priority issue, all respondents
| Issue | Kakamega | Vihiga | Bungoma | Busia | Trans Nzoia | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roads / infrastructure | 15% | 39% | 18% | 20% | 26% | 21% |
| Cost of living | 19% | 6% | 20% | 23% | 12% | 17% |
| Market for agricultural produce | 10% | 17% | 8% | 14% | 14% | 12% |
| Revival of the sugar industry | 13% | 6% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 11% |
| Health services | 7% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 22% | 10% |
| Youth employment | 11% | 12% | 9% | 10% | 5% | 9% |
| Education / TVET | 8% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 9% |
| Devolution funding | 5% | 7% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Security | 7% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Not sure | 6% | 1% | 2% | 5% | – | 3% |
| Issue | Male | Female | 18-26 | 27-35 | 36-45 | 46-55 | 55+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roads / infrastructure | 19% | 22% | 33% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 22% | 21% |
| Cost of living | 15% | 20% | 6% | 23% | 20% | 11% | 11% | 17% |
| Market for agricultural produce | 15% | 9% | 6% | 16% | 9% | 14% | 9% | 12% |
| Revival of the sugar industry | 9% | 12% | 4% | 8% | 11% | 15% | 16% | 11% |
| Health services | 10% | 9% | 8% | 7% | 12% | 8% | 15% | 10% |
| Youth employment | 10% | 9% | 18% | 8% | 6% | 14% | 11% | 9% |
| Education / TVET | 9% | 9% | 14% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| Devolution funding | 7% | 4% | 2% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| Security | 3% | 2% | – | 2% | 4% | 2% | – | 3% |
| Not sure | 4% | 3% | 8% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
Political Party Support
Which political party do you support today? (n = 602)
Political party support, all respondents
| Party | Kakamega | Vihiga | Bungoma | Busia | Trans Nzoia | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) | 29% | 25% | 18% | 27% | 26% | 25% |
| United Democratic Alliance (UDA) | 13% | 24% | 27% | 17% | 21% | 20% |
| Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) | 8% | 1% | 5% | 11% | 5% | 7% |
| FORD-Kenya | 3% | 4% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) | 3% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 4% |
| Jubilee Party | 5% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| DAP-K | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Party of National Unity (PNU) | 2% | – | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| United Green Movement (UGM) | 2% | – | – | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Maendeleo Chap Chap Party | 1% | – | – | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Restore and Build Kenya Party | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) | 1% | – | – | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) | 1% | – | 1% | – | 2% | 1% |
| Others | 9% | 1% | 2% | 8% | 2% | 5% |
| None | 9% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 13% | 9% |
| I don't want to disclose | 14% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 10% | 17% |
| Party | Male | Female | 18-26 | 27-35 | 36-45 | 46-55 | 55+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) | 25% | 25% | 14% | 25% | 26% | 28% | 23% | 25% |
| United Democratic Alliance (UDA) | 22% | 18% | 10% | 15% | 21% | 21% | 38% | 20% |
| Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) | 7% | 7% | 2% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 13% | 7% |
| FORD-Kenya | 3% | 5% | 2% | 3% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 4% |
| Wiper Patriotic Front (WPF) | 4% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | – | 4% |
| Jubilee Party | 3% | 2% | 12% | 2% | 1% | 6% | – | 3% |
| DAP-K | 2% | 1% | – | 2% | 2% | 1% | – | 2% |
| Party of National Unity (PNU) | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 1% | – | 2% | 1% |
| United Green Movement (UGM) | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Maendeleo Chap Chap Party | 0.3% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Restore and Build Kenya Party | 1% | 0.3% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | – | – | 1% |
| Movement for Democracy and Growth (MDG) | 2% | – | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) | 0.3% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 1% |
| Others | 5% | 5% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 5% |
| None | 6% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 9% |
| I don't want to disclose | 16% | 18% | 12% | 21% | 15% | 20% | 11% | 17% |
Preferred Presidential Aspirant
Assuming a presidential election were held today, who would you vote for as President? (n = 602)
Preferred presidential aspirant, all respondents
| Aspirant | Kakamega | Vihiga | Bungoma | Busia | Trans Nzoia | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Ruto | 19% | 33% | 30% | 23% | 26% | 25% |
| Fred Matiang'i | 14% | 17% | 10% | 22% | 15% | 15% |
| George Natembeya | 12% | 6% | 14% | 16% | 16% | 13% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 7% | 13% | 6% | 9% | 11% | 8% |
| Babu Owino | 5% | 3% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Gladys Wanga | 3% | 4% | – | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | 4% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| David Maraga | 4% | 3% | 1% | – | – | 2% |
| Martha Karua | 2% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% |
| Prefer not to say | 8% | 4% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 5% |
| Undecided | 24% | 16% | 33% | 20% | 23% | 25% |
| Aspirant | Male | Female | 18-26 | 27-35 | 36-45 | 46-55 | 55+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Ruto | 27% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 25% | 29% | 40% | 25% |
| Fred Matiang'i | 17% | 13% | 18% | 11% | 17% | 19% | 11% | 15% |
| George Natembeya | 13% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 17% | 9% | 15% | 13% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 8% | 8% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 8% |
| Babu Owino | 3% | 3% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 3% |
| Gladys Wanga | 2% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Rigathi Gachagua | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 3% | 1% | – | 2% |
| David Maraga | 2% | 1% | – | 3% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Martha Karua | 1% | 0.3% | – | – | 1% | – | 2% | 0.5% |
| Prefer not to say | 5% | 5% | 4% | 7% | 4% | 5% | – | 5% |
| Undecided | 20% | 29% | 24% | 31% | 23% | 23% | 15% | 25% |
Leaders Who Influence Abaluhya Politics
Which leaders do you think currently influence Abaluhya politics? (n = 602)
Leaders who influence Abaluhya politics, all respondents
Additional leaders named individually by respondents under the "Others" category included: Francis Atwoli, Elsie Busihile Muhanda, Wilber Otichilo, Jack Wanami Wamboka, Fredrick Lusuli Ikana, Majimbo Kalasinga, Wycliffe Wangamati and Nabwera Daraja.
| Leader | Kakamega | Vihiga | Bungoma | Busia | Trans Nzoia | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Natembeya | 44% | 49% | 51% | 47% | 70% | 50% |
| Musalia Mudavadi | 23% | 45% | 41% | 32% | 29% | 32% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 26% | 29% | 20% | 52% | 39% | 31% |
| Moses Wetangula | 26% | 23% | 39% | 26% | 28% | 29% |
| Wycliffe Oparanya | 19% | 28% | 4% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
| Eugene Wamalwa | 7% | 28% | 12% | 14% | 14% | 13% |
| Cleophas Malala | 8% | 10% | 5% | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Peter Salasya | 10% | 4% | 9% | 9% | – | 7% |
| Fred Gumo | 1% | – | – | 14% | 14% | 5% |
| Bonny Khalwale | 7% | – | 2% | 3% | 3% | 4% |
| Okiyah Omtatah | 1% | 3% | 1% | 14% | – | 3% |
| Ken Lusaka | 1% | – | 5% | – | 1% | 2% |
| Caleb Amisi | – | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| Godfrey Osotsi | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 1% |
| Paul Otuoma | 1% | 1% | – | 3% | – | 1% |
| Didmus Barasa | – | – | 3% | – | 1% | 1% |
| Others | 3% | – | 2% | – | 3% | 2% |
| Don't Know/Refused to say | 28% | 4% | 17% | 14% | 5% | 17% |
| Leader | Male | Female | 18-26 | 27-35 | 36-45 | 46-55 | 55+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Natembeya | 48% | 53% | 39% | 53% | 53% | 53% | 40% | 50% |
| Musalia Mudavadi | 30% | 34% | 22% | 28% | 37% | 28% | 42% | 32% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 36% | 27% | 39% | 27% | 31% | 41% | 22% | 31% |
| Moses Wetangula | 27% | 31% | 35% | 28% | 31% | 25% | 27% | 29% |
| Wycliffe Oparanya | 14% | 14% | 8% | 11% | 16% | 19% | 11% | 14% |
| Eugene Wamalwa | 12% | 14% | 10% | 12% | 16% | 16% | – | 13% |
| Cleophas Malala | 12% | 9% | 12% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 11% | 10% |
| Peter Salasya | 8% | 7% | 16% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 4% | 7% |
| Fred Gumo | 7% | 3% | 16% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 9% | 5% |
| Bonny Khalwale | 3% | 4% | – | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Okiyah Omtatah | 3% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Ken Lusaka | 1% | 2% | – | 1% | 3% | – | 2% | 2% |
| Caleb Amisi | 2% | 0.3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Godfrey Osotsi | 2% | 0.3% | 4% | 1% | 0.4% | 1% | 4% | 1% |
| Paul Otuoma | 1% | 1% | 10% | – | – | 1% | – | 1% |
| Didmus Barasa | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 0.4% | – | – | 1% |
| Others | 2% | 2% | – | 2% | 2% | – | 5% | 2% |
| Don't Know/Refused to say | 14% | 19% | 12% | 18% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 17% |
Abaluhya Community Kingpin
In your opinion, who is currently the primary political "Kingpin" of the Western region (the person who effectively champions the community's rights)? (n = 602)
Abaluhya community kingpin, all respondents
| Leader | Kakamega | Vihiga | Bungoma | Busia | Trans Nzoia | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Natembeya | 30% | 26% | 36% | 42% | 50% | 36% |
| Musalia Mudavadi | 11% | 43% | 9% | 27% | 20% | 18% |
| Moses Wetang'ula | 9% | 6% | 30% | 2% | 16% | 14% |
| Wycliffe Oparanya | 17% | 6% | 2% | 2% | 8% | 8% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 9% | – | 3% | 7% | 1% | 5% |
| Peter Salasya | 4% | 1% | 1% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Eugene Wamalwa | 2% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
| Mukhisa Kituyi | 3% | – | – | – | – | 1% |
| Cleophas Malala | 2% | – | 1% | – | – | 1% |
| Paul Otuoma | 1% | – | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Bonny Khalwale | 2% | 1% | – | – | – | 1% |
| Kenneth Lusaka | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | – | 0.5% |
| Caleb Amisi | 2% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% |
| Fred Gumo | 2% | – | – | – | – | 0.5% |
| Okiyah Omtatah | – | – | – | 1% | – | 0.2% |
| None / Not sure | 8% | 13% | 14% | 10% | 3% | 10% |
| Leader | Male | Female | 18-26 | 27-35 | 36-45 | 46-55 | 55+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Natembeya | 39% | 33% | 29% | 38% | 36% | 36% | 38% | 36% |
| Musalia Mudavadi | 20% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 20% | 20% | 24% | 18% |
| Moses Wetang'ula | 11% | 16% | 14% | 13% | 18% | 7% | 9% | 14% |
| Wycliffe Oparanya | 9% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 8% |
| Edwin Sifuna | 4% | 6% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 2% | 5% |
| Peter Salasya | 2% | 3% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Eugene Wamalwa | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 2% | 2% | – | 1% |
| Mukhisa Kituyi | 0.3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 1% |
| Cleophas Malala | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 1% |
| Paul Otuoma | 1% | 0.3% | 2% | 1% | 1% | – | – | 1% |
| Bonny Khalwale | – | 1% | – | 1% | – | 2% | 2% | 1% |
| Kenneth Lusaka | 0.3% | 1% | – | 1% | 0.4% | 1% | – | 0.5% |
| Caleb Amisi | 0.3% | 1% | 2% | – | 0.4% | 1% | – | 0.5% |
| Fred Gumo | 1% | 0.3% | – | 1% | – | – | 2% | 0.5% |
| Okiyah Omtatah | 0.3% | – | – | – | – | 1% | – | 0.2% |
| None / Not sure | 8% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 11% | 11% | 10% |
Survey Demographics
Profile of the 602 respondents interviewed.
Age distribution
Gender
Religion
Employment status
Level of education
Leave a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.