THE INFOTRAK VOICE OF THE PEOPLE – POLL– JUNE 2022
Presidential Popularity: The Race Tightens, May 2022
A nationally representative telephone survey of 9,000 registered voters conducted 23rd–27th May 2022 across all 47 counties, tracking presidential popularity ahead of the August 2022 General Election.
Poll Methodology
How the survey was run, and who was interviewed
▾
When was the poll conducted?
23rd – 27th May, 2022.
How was it conducted?
Interviews were conducted through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI).
Universe & sample
The relevant section of the public targeted (the universe) was voters 18 years and above at the time of the poll. The overall poll had a target survey sample size of 9,000 respondents.
Geographical coverage
The poll covered 47 counties in nine sub-regions of Kenya. To ensure findings were representative of Kenyan voters 18+, the distribution of the sample across the 47 counties was proportionately allocated.
Margin of error & response rate
±1.033% at a 95% degree of confidence, with a 96% response rate.
Weighting & analysis
Where achieved interviews slightly differed from the designed demographics, post-stratification weights were applied to correct the demographics and ensure representativeness. Data was processed and analyzed using SPSS 26 statistical software.
Voter statistics base
Voter numbers were derived from the interim/non-audited IEBC latest voter registration figures. To determine absolute voter popularity figures, a base of 22.2 million registered voters was applied in its entirety.
Disclaimer
This is by no means a guarantee that the findings in this report will reflect the actual outcome of the August 2022 General Elections — the data provides a snapshot of the perception and views of the electorate at the time the survey was conducted.
| Region | County | Sample (n) |
|---|
The Presidential Race: A Two-Horse Contest
Raila Odinga leads William Ruto 42% to 38%, with one in five voters still undecided
▾
Assuming the general elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as the president? (n = 9,000)
Raila Odinga – Martha Karua Ticket
William Ruto – Rigathi Gachagua Ticket
| Region | Voters per Region (M) | % of Region | 2017 Voter Turnout | 2022 Intention to Vote |
|---|
Presidential Popularity Trend
Raila and Ruto were tied at 42% in early May; Ruto has since slipped to 38%
▾
Assuming general elections were being held today, which candidate would you vote for as your President? (Top of mind, single mention. n = 9,000)
Comparative Analysis: Gains & Losses
Lower Eastern swung hardest away from Raila; Northern Kenya and Western swung away from Ruto
▾
Change in presidential popularity by region, end of May 2022 vs early May 2022
| Region | Raila – End May | Raila – Early May | Raila – % Change | Ruto – End May | Ruto – Early May | Ruto – % Change |
|---|
The Undecided Voter
20% of voters remain undecided — disproportionately female and aged 27–45
▾
Share of respondents undecided or who refused to answer, by region (n = 9,000; total undecided n = 1,754)
| Region | % Undecided within Region | Count | % of Total Undecided (n=1,754) |
|---|
Key Issues of Concern & Campaign Agenda
The high cost of living dominates both what worries Kenyans and what they want candidates to address
▾
Key Issues of Concern (n=9,000)
Could you kindly mention the three key issues that concern you as a Kenyan and that should be addressed as a matter of priority?
Key Campaign Agenda Items
Popularity by Gender & Age
Ruto and Raila are closest among women; Raila leads more clearly among voters over 35
▾
Assuming the general elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as the president? (n = 9,000)
Stronghold & Battleground Counties
Raila leads in 20 counties, Ruto in 16, with 11 counties still up for grabs
▾
Raila Strongholds — 20 Counties
- Mombasa
- Kilifi
- Taita Taveta
- Garissa
- Wajir
- Mandera
- Marsabit
- Makueni
- Machakos
- Kitui
- Busia
- Kakamega
- Vihiga
- Siaya
- Kisumu
- Homa Bay
- Migori
- Kisii
- Nyamira
- Nairobi
Ruto Strongholds — 16 Counties
- Isiolo
- Laikipia
- Embu
- Meru
- Kiambu
- Muranga
- Nyandarua
- Tharaka Nithi
- Nyeri
- Kirinyaga
- Kericho
- Bomet
- Uasin Gishu
- Elgeyo Marakwet
- Nandi
- Baringo
Battleground — 11 Counties
- Tana River
- Kwale
- Lamu
- Turkana
- Samburu
- Nakuru
- West Pokot
- Narok
- Kajiado
- Bungoma
- Trans Nzoia
Presidential Popularity by Region
Raila dominates Nyanza and Nairobi; Ruto dominates Mt. Kenya, South Rift and North Rift
▾
Assuming the general elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as the president? — by region (n = 9,000)
| Region | #1 Issue | #2 Issue | #3 Issue |
|---|
County-by-County Popularity
Full presidential popularity breakdown for all 47 counties — search to find your county
▾
Assuming the general elections were to be held today, who would you vote for as the president? — by county (n = 9,000)
| Region | County | Reg. Voters | 2017 Turnout | 2022 Intention | Raila | Ruto | Others | Undecided |
|---|
Respondent Demographics
Who was interviewed for this poll (n = 9,000)
▾
Age
Religion
Gender
Employment
Marital Status
Level of Education
