THE INFOTRAK VOICE OF THE PEOPLE – WAVE 2 – DECEMBER 2021
Voice of the People Poll: Kenya 2022 Elections
A nationwide survey on the 2022 presidential race, One Kenya Alliance (OKA) dynamics, and political party popularity, based on 1,600 Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) conducted 17th–21st December 2021.
Methodology
Data Collection
Quantitative interviews were conducted through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI) between 17th–21st December 2021.
The universe was persons 18 years and above at the time of the survey, representing 19.6 million registered voters. The overall target sample size was 1,600 respondents.
Margin of Error
±2.45% at a 95% degree of confidence.
| Region | Voter Register (Millions) | Proportion | Sample per Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 1.7 | 9% | 140 |
| North Eastern | 0.5 | 3% | 41 |
| Eastern | 3.0 | 15% | 242 |
| Central | 2.9 | 15% | 238 |
| Rift Valley | 4.6 | 24% | 380 |
| Western | 1.9 | 10% | 157 |
| Nyanza | 2.7 | 14% | 219 |
| Nairobi City | 2.3 | 11% | 184 |
| Total | 19.6 | 100% | 1,600 |
Executive Summary
A Two-Horse Race
The 2022 presidential election will be a two-horse race between William Ruto (32%) and Raila Odinga (33%).
Neck and Neck
The presidential race is currently neck to neck: Ruto leads in Central, Rift Valley, Eastern and Nairobi, while Raila leads in Coast, Western, Nyanza and North Eastern.
OKA Under Pressure
Majority of Kenyans (52%) want the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) to dissolve and support either of the two leading presidential candidates. Of these, 55% want OKA to support Raila, and 44% want Musalia Mudavadi considered as a running mate.
Party Popularity
The two leading political parties currently are the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) at 33% and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 32%.
Demographics
Gender
Location
Age
Religion
Marital Status
Level of Education
Presidential Popularity
Presidential candidate popularity (top mentions)
If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for as the next president of Kenya? (full breakdown, n=1,600)
Other mentions for presidential candidate of choice included William Kabogo, Mwangi wa Iria, Reuben Kigame, and Abduba Dida.
Presidential Race — Trend Analysis
If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for as the next president of Kenya?
December 2020 (n=800)
November 2021 (n=8,000)
December 2021 (n=1,600)
Presidential Race — Regional & Demographic Breakdown
If Presidential elections were held today, who would you vote for as the next president of Kenya?
William Ruto lost 12% popularity nationally between December 2020 and December 2021, with notable losses in Coast, North Eastern and Central. Raila Odinga gained 20% popularity over the same period, with notable gains in Coast, Eastern and Western.
| Region | Ruto Dec'20 | Ruto Nov'21 | Ruto Dec'21 | Ruto +/- Dec'20/21 | Raila Dec'20 | Raila Nov'21 | Raila Dec'21 | Raila +/- Dec'20/21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 39% | 28% | 24% | -15% | 17% | 27% | 48% | 31% |
| North Eastern | 52% | 36% | 25% | -27% | 15% | 28% | 33% | 18% |
| Eastern | 39% | 37% | 39% | 0% | 7% | 19% | 29% | 22% |
| Central | 60% | 45% | 42% | -18% | 4% | 12% | 16% | 12% |
| Rift Valley | 53% | 46% | 42% | -11% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 16% |
| Western | 34% | 23% | 23% | -11% | 10% | 31% | 38% | 28% |
| Nyanza | 19% | 16% | 13% | -6% | 39% | 49% | 57% | 18% |
| Nairobi | 46% | 24% | 32% | -14% | 9% | 29% | 28% | 19% |
| Total | 44% | 34% | 32% | -12% | 13% | 25% | 33% | 20% |
By region (n=1,600): Ruto leads in Eastern, Central, Rift Valley and Nairobi; Raila leads in Coast, North Eastern, Western and Nyanza; Musalia Mudavadi and Kalonzo Musyoka each lead in 3-5% ranges in isolated regions; 21% remain undecided nationally.
| Candidate | Coast | North Eastern | Eastern | Central | Rift Valley | Western | Nyanza | Nairobi | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raila Odinga | 48% | 33% | 29% | 16% | 26% | 38% | 57% | 28% | 33% |
| William Ruto | 24% | 25% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 23% | 13% | 32% | 32% |
| Musalia Mudavadi | 1% | – | 0.3% | 1% | 1% | 3% | 0.5% | 2% | 1% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 1% | – | 5% | – | 1% | – | 0.3% | 1% | 1% |
| Others | – | 5% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| I would not vote | 4% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 4% |
| Refused to answer | 8% | 6% | 4% | 12% | 7% | 5% | 6% | 4% | 7% |
| Undecided | 16% | 22% | 17% | 26% | 19% | 27% | 19% | 28% | 21% |
By gender and age (n=1,600): Raila Odinga is supported more by males and older youth (25 years+) and adults, while William Ruto is supported more by females and younger youth (18-24 years).
| Candidate | Female | Male | 18-24 Years | 25-35 Years | 36-45 Years | 46-55 Years | Over 55 Years | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raila Odinga | 26% | 39% | 16% | 34% | 38% | 39% | 36% | 33% |
| William Ruto | 31% | 34% | 35% | 32% | 35% | 30% | 29% | 32% |
| Musalia Mudavadi | 0.5% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| Kalonzo Musyoka | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Others | 2% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0.4% | 1% | 1% |
| I would not vote | 5% | 2% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 4% |
| Refused to answer | 10% | 4% | 9% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 7% |
| Undecided | 26% | 17% | 27% | 22% | 17% | 22% | 18% | 21% |
One Kenya Alliance (OKA) Dynamics
Should the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) be dissolved and support either Ruto or Raila? (n=1,600)
Majority of people in all regions support this move apart from Central, where only 37% support dissolution.
| Region | Yes % | Not Aware of OKA % | No % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| North Eastern | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Eastern | 48% | 36% | 16% |
| Central | 37% | 37% | 27% |
| Rift Valley | 58% | 21% | 21% |
| Western | 50% | 30% | 21% |
| Nyanza | 58% | 29% | 12% |
| Nairobi | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Total | 52% | 28% | 20% |
If yes, who should OKA support? (n=832, those who said OKA should be dissolved)
Majority of people from all regions apart from Rift Valley and Central think OKA should support Raila; Eastern is split roughly in half on which candidate OKA should support.
| Region | Raila Odinga % | William Ruto % |
|---|---|---|
| Coast | 72% | 28% |
| North Eastern | 61% | 39% |
| Eastern | 49% | 51% |
| Central | 35% | 65% |
| Rift Valley | 43% | 57% |
| Western | 60% | 40% |
| Nyanza | 77% | 23% |
| Nairobi | 60% | 40% |
| Total | 55% | 45% |
Which of the four OKA principals should be considered for a running mate position by the presidential candidate they will support? (n=823)
| Region | Mudavadi % | Kalonzo % | Moi % | Wetangula % | None % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 48% | 15% | 13% | 3% | 20% |
| North Eastern | 33% | 12% | 13% | 9% | 33% |
| Eastern | 20% | 40% | 14% | 4% | 21% |
| Central | 50% | 17% | 12% | 1% | 20% |
| Rift Valley | 47% | 17% | 13% | 3% | 20% |
| Western | 64% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 17% |
| Nyanza | 46% | 17% | 11% | 2% | 24% |
| Nairobi | 58% | 13% | 6% | – | 23% |
| Total | 46% | 19% | 11% | 3% | 21% |
Who is your preferred flag bearer for OKA? (n=448)
| Region | Mudavadi % | Kalonzo % | Moi % | Wetangula % | Refused % | Undecided % | None of the above % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 26% | 19% | 26% | 7% | – | 3% | 19% |
| North Eastern | 28% | 28% | 13% | 13% | – | – | 18% |
| Eastern | 25% | 31% | 6% | 11% | – | 3% | 24% |
| Central | 32% | 24% | 11% | 2% | – | – | 31% |
| Rift Valley | 61% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 5% | – | 5% |
| Western | 62% | 3% | 13% | 9% | – | – | 13% |
| Nyanza | 40% | 30% | 11% | 5% | – | – | 15% |
| Nairobi | 64% | 22% | 5% | 3% | – | – | 6% |
| Total | 45% | 20% | 11% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 16% |
Of those who support OKA's dissolution, 44% want Musalia Mudavadi to be running mate for whichever of the two leading candidates OKA ends up supporting.
Political Party Popularity
Could you kindly tell me the political party you feel closest to?
Current party popularity (December 2021)
| Region | UDA % | ODM % | Jubilee % | WDM-K % | ANC % | Others % | Undecided % | I don't want to disclose % | None/Hakuna % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 23% | 49% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 2% | 23% |
| North Eastern | 36% | 39% | – | 1% | – | – | – | 5% | 18% |
| Eastern | 42% | 26% | 1% | 8% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% | 18% |
| Central | 41% | 13% | 6% | 0.3% | – | – | – | 7% | 31% |
| Rift Valley | 44% | 24% | 3% | – | 1% | 2% | – | 6% | 20% |
| Western | 22% | 36% | – | – | 5% | 2% | – | 9% | 27% |
| Nyanza | 12% | 63% | 1% | – | – | 0.3% | – | 5% | 18% |
| Nairobi | 34% | 25% | 2% | 1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | – | 8% | 30% |
| Total | 33% | 32% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 0.1% | 6% | 23% |
Trend — December 2020 (n=800)
Trend — November 2021 (n=8,000)
Trend — December 2021 (n=1,600)
