Infotrak Media Release April 2024
InfoTrak Voice of the People (VOP) Poll — March 2024
A nationally representative survey of 1,000 adult Kenyans covering the direction of the country, key issues of concern, performance ratings of key governance stakeholders, and public support for Raila Odinga's African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson bid.
Methodology
Data Collection
Interviews conducted 8th March – 9th March 2024 through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI).
Sample of n=1,000 represented the universe of adult Kenyans aged 18 and above, using a sampling frame designed with Population Proportionate to Size (PPS) guided by the 2019 Census.
The survey covered all 47 counties and 8 regions of Kenya, with the sample proportionately allocated across regions to ensure national representativeness.
Margin of error was ±3.099% at a 95% degree of confidence, with a 94% response rate.
Where achieved interviews differed slightly from intended sampled proportions per demographic group, the dataset was weighted to correct for over- or under-sampling.
Quantitative data was processed and analyzed using SPSS version 26 statistical software.
| Region | Adult Population (Millions) | Regional Proportion | Sample per Region |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coast | 2.3 | 9% | 91 |
| North Eastern | 1.0 | 4% | 40 |
| Eastern | 3.9 | 15% | 150 |
| Central | 3.4 | 13% | 134 |
| Rift Valley | 6.6 | 26% | 256 |
| Western | 2.5 | 10% | 96 |
| Nyanza | 3.2 | 12% | 123 |
| Nairobi City | 2.9 | 11% | 111 |
| Total | 25.7 | 100% | 1000 |
Direction of the Country
Overall, what direction do you think the country is currently headed in? Is it headed in the right direction, wrong direction, or neither right nor wrong direction?
A majority of Kenyans (58%) opined the country is headed in the wrong direction, a slight drop of 3 percentage points from December 2023 (61%).
| Wave | Right % | Wrong % | Neither % | Don't Know % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2022 | 16 | 55 | 28 | 1 |
| Feb 2023 | 22 | 62 | 15 | 2 |
| July 2023 | 15 | 72 | 12 | 2 |
| Sept 2023 | 30 | 53 | 13 | 3 |
| Dec 2023 | 18 | 61 | 17 | 4 |
| March 2024 | 19 | 58 | 19 | 4 |
| Region | Right % | Wrong % | Neither % | Don't Know % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi | 21 | 53 | 20 | 6 |
| Central | 17 | 55 | 21 | 6 |
| Coast | 12 | 70 | 13 | 5 |
| Eastern | 18 | 62 | 17 | 2 |
| North Eastern | 18 | 67 | 10 | 5 |
| Nyanza | 12 | 68 | 14 | 5 |
| Rift Valley | 32 | 45 | 20 | 2 |
| Western | 10 | 64 | 26 | 0.0 |
| Total | 19 | 58 | 19 | 4 |
| Group | Right % | Wrong % | Neither % | Don't Know % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 17 | 59 | 19 | 4 |
| Male | 22 | 57 | 18 | 3 |
| 18 – 26 | 16 | 60 | 16 | 7 |
| 27 – 35 | 19 | 55 | 22 | 4 |
| 36 – 45 | 23 | 57 | 16 | 4 |
| 46 – 55 | 16 | 57 | 21 | 3 |
| 55+ | 15 | 68 | 15 | 2 |
| Total | 19 | 58 | 19 | 4 |
Why the country is headed in the right direction (n=238)
Why the country is headed in the wrong direction (n=861)
Key Issues of Concern
Could you kindly mention the three key issues that concern you as a Kenyan and that should be addressed as a matter of priority? (n=1000)
High cost of living has remained the top-cited concern across the last three waves, at 65% in September 2023, 56% in December 2023, and 58% in March 2024.
Governance: Performance Rating of Key Stakeholders
Could you please tell me how would you rate the overall performance in 2023 of the following key stakeholders on a scale of 1 – 10 where 1 is extremely poor and 10 is excellent? (n=1000)
| Stakeholder | Poor % | Average % | Good % | Excellent % | Mean Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Presidency | 41 | 33 | 19 | 7 | 52% |
| The National Assembly (Parliament) | 51 | 35 | 10 | 3 | 53% |
| The Senate | 49 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 69% |
| The Judiciary | 42 | 36 | 16 | 4 | 67% |
| The Cabinet Secretaries | 48 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 67% |
| The Opposition | 41 | 34 | 17 | 7 | 62% |
Raila Odinga's African Union Commission (AUC) Contest
Do you support the move by Azimio leader Raila Odinga to contest for the African Union Commission (AUC) Chairperson? (n=1000)
8 in 10 Kenyans claim they support the move by Rt. Hon. Raila Odinga to contest for the AUC Chairperson post come next year. Nairobi, Rift Valley and Nyanza regions gave the highest support, compared to the lowest of 64% from North Eastern. By gender, support is highest among females, and by age, youth show the greatest support for the move.
| Region | Yes % | No % | Don't Know % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi | 88 | 7 | 5 |
| Central | 78 | 17 | 5 |
| Coast | 78 | 21 | 1 |
| Eastern | 77 | 20 | 3 |
| North Eastern | 64 | 23 | 13 |
| Nyanza | 83 | 14 | 3 |
| Rift Valley | 85 | 13 | 2 |
| Western | 79 | 18 | 3 |
| Total | 81 | 16 | 3 |
| Group | Yes % | No % | Don't Know % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female | 84 | 13 | 3 |
| Male | 79 | 18 | 3 |
| 18 – 26 | 75 | 21 | 3 |
| 27 – 35 | 84 | 13 | 4 |
| 36 – 45 | 82 | 14 | 3 |
| 46 – 55 | 81 | 16 | 3 |
| 55+ | 76 | 22 | 2 |
| Total | 81 | 16 | 3 |
Survey Demographics
| Employment Status | % |
|---|---|
| Self-employed | 40 |
| Unemployed | 24 |
| Casually employed | 23 |
| Formally employed | 9 |
| Retired | 3 |
| Refused to answer | 1 |
| Education | % |
|---|---|
| Secondary | 46 |
| Tertiary college | 28 |
| Primary | 15 |
| University/postgraduate | 10 |
| None | 1 |
| Madrasa | 0.00 |
| Age | % |
|---|---|
| 18 – 26 | 8 |
| 27 – 35 | 34 |
| 36 – 45 | 34 |
| 46 – 55 | 15 |
| 55+ | 9 |
| Religion | % |
|---|---|
| Protestant | 62 |
| Catholic | 29 |
| Muslim | 7 |
| None | 1 |
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